By Brandon Rastok
NoLogoNeeded.com staff writer
Is it a surprise the Cleveland Browns are struggling? To win in the NFL a team needs talent. That's why there is still a market for players like Terrell Owens and Michael Vick.
Horrendous drafting since 1999 has left the team void of much-needed talent. Anyone who overvalued the Browns’ level of talent and thought the 2009 Browns would be a .500 team must have been betting with their heart.
While Eric Mangini and Brian Daboll have not exactly put their best foot forward, it would be a huge shock if this team could turn its fortunes around with another coaching change.
I decided to look at the situation with cold, hard numbers. I compared the Browns with teams that have been among the NFL's best the past few seasons and one team with a new head coach that seems to have emerged as one of the league's best.
I looked at the number of players each team has from each round of the draft. My thinking was the best teams should have the most talented players, which, in turn, should come from the first round few rounds. I excluded kickers, punters and long snappers.
First up, the Cleveland Browns:
|
|
1st Rnd |
2nd Rnd |
3rd Rnd |
4th Rnd |
5th Rnd |
6th Rnd |
7th Rnd |
UFA |
|
Starting Offense |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
|
Offense |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
8 |
|
Starting Defense |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
Defense |
1 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
|
Overall |
6 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
10 |
1 |
14 |
Wonder why the defense is slow and ineffective?The Browns had one first-round player starting on defense. Only five of their defensive starters were drafted before the fifth round.
On offense, the Browns have four first-round players starting. Add in a second rounder and a third rounder and the offense should be much better than it is. It could use more talent, but six of the 11 starters are from the top three rounds. It seems that this group is under performing, but still could use some help.
Overall, the Browns have 14 players drafted in the first two rounds. This seems average if not slightly below average. However, if you take into account Brady Quinn is on the bench and three second-round picks from the 2009 draft are having no impact, it is can be said the Browns have 10 first- and second-round players. The biggest void in talent is in the middle rounds. During the past 11 offseasons, the Browns have acquired five players drafted in the third and fourth rounds. That is where the base of the team should be formed. The elite players should be in the first two rounds. The Browns' foundation level of talent is missing.
That leads to the biggest problem. The Browns are slightly low on elite level talent, but are completely void of intermediate talent to serve as the team's base. The most surprising statistic I found were almost half — 25 players — of the Browns' roster was drafted in the sixth round, seventh round or were undrafted free agents (UFAs). Remember, not taking into account kickers, punters and long snappers, it means 25 out of the Browns' 50 are bordering on not being in the NFL.
Imagine if this number was reduced by eight players — four on offense and four on defense. Now, those eight were talented enough to have been drafted in the top five rounds. Now, the Browns might have a foundation for a team. Plus, having only 16 players from the sixth round, seventh round and UFAs would put the Browns on par with the rest of the NFL.
Let's compare the Browns to NFL's elite teams.
|
Ravens |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st Rnd |
2nd Rnd |
3rd Rnd |
4th Rnd |
5th Rnd |
6th Rnd |
7th Rnd |
UFA |
|
Starting Offense |
5 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Offense |
6 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
Starting Defense |
6 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Defense |
6 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
6 |
|
Overall |
12 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
8 |
What jumps off the page about the Ravens is they are excellent talent evaluators. As a result, come April the Ravens do well in the draft. They have five first-round starters on offense and two second-round starters. Meaning seven of eleven starters in Baltimore are considered elite talent. People wonder why the Ravens offense is finally rolling. The talent level just might have something to do with it. Get more talent, and teams perform better. Seems pretty simple.
Also, the Ravens defense is consistently dominant because they have six first-round starters. For comparison sake, they have more first-round starters on defense than the Browns have on their entire team. Maybe this is the reason the Ravens rolled over the Browns last week? Also, the Ravens only have 14 players drafted in the sixth round, seventh round or were UFAs.
|
Giants |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st Rnd |
2nd Rnd |
3rd Rnd |
4th Rnd |
5th Rnd |
6th Rnd |
7th Rnd |
UFA |
|
Starting Offense |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
Offense |
3 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
|
Starting Defense |
0 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Defense |
2 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
|
Overall |
5 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
|
Eagles |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st Rnd |
2nd Rnd |
3rd Rnd |
4th Rnd |
5th Rnd |
6th Rnd |
7th Rnd |
UFA |
|
Starting Offense |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
|
Offense |
4 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
|
Starting Defense |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
Defense |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
8 |
|
Overall |
7 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
13 |
The Eagles have elite players and a solid core of middle-round talent. They also have only 17 players from the bottom group.
|
Steelers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st Rnd |
2nd Rnd |
3rd Rnd |
4th Rnd |
5th Rnd |
6th Rnd |
7th Rnd |
UFA |
|
Starting Offense |
3 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
Offense |
4 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
|
Starting Defense |
4 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
Defense |
5 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
|
Overall |
9 |
4 |
8 |
9 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
11 |
The Steelers have seven first-round starters. Much like the Eagles and Giants, they have a solid core of players from the middle rounds.
|
Patriots |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st Rnd |
2nd Rnd |
3rd Rnd |
4th Rnd |
5th Rnd |
6th Rnd |
7th Rnd |
UFA |
|
Starting Offense |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
Offense |
7 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
|
Starting Defense |
5 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
|
Defense |
5 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
|
Overall |
12 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
13 |
Not only are the Patriots well coached, but they have been able to find a variety of talent as evident by starting two fifth-round picks, two-sixth round picks and five UFAs.
(Below) Now, the Jets are a somewhat surprise team with their new coach and rookie quarterback. But should the success of the coach and quarterback really come as a surprise?
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Jets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st Rnd |
2nd Rnd |
3rd Rnd |
4th Rnd |
5th Rnd |
6th Rnd |
7th Rnd |
UFA |
|
Starting Offense |
7 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
Offense |
7 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
Starting Defense |
5 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
|
Defense |
7 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
12 |
|
Overall |
14 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
16 |
Amazingly, the Jets have seven starters on offense that were first-round draft choices. They merely need four fill-in players for 11 starters. Then, with five defensive starters from the first round and two from the second round, it is easy to see why the Jets are having success. How much is the new coach really doing, other than just giving them an attitude? The answer is probably the same as it is to why a rookie quarterback is having so much success. The answer just may be that both are succeeding because of the talent around them.
It's easy to see why the Browns are not having any success no matter who is coaching. The next time someone complains the Browns need to find an undrafted diamond in the rough (i.e. Josh Cribbs or James Harrison) the reply is simple:
“NO! They Browns need to spend their time finding talent at the top and middle of the draft.
They have focused too much on diamonds in the rough.”
With talent comes success. Hopefully one day the Browns can find a little of both.
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Comments
Great post. Numbers don't lie. Now I can stop thinking we are cursed and start thinking more rationally.
An analysis well done. Let's keep our fingers crossed that Mangini can also do the same for the Browns as he did with the Jets. It's nice to know they are in good standing, just hoping that he was one of the main decision makers there and can do likewise in Cleveland.
Great analysis. Numbers like this make me wonder why hiring a coach was a bigger deal than hiring the top notch talent evaluator that Savage was supposed to be.
Say what you will about the old regime, but Savage sure did whiff on his mid/late round picks.
Harrison was drafted.
@ Boomhauer,
Careful ... what Brandon wrote regarding Steelers linebacker and former Josh Cribbs' teammate at Kent State, James Harrison, is true. Harrison was not drafted. He was signed by the Steelers as a UFA.
Jerome Harrison, the Browns running back, was drafted.
Brandon was writing about the Steelers linebacker. You're thinking about the Browns running back.
I'm still not convinced the Browns face such a talent deficit.
I look at those numbers and I wonder, what about this analysis reveals that these teams are any more talented than the Browns?
Obviously the Jets, Ravens, and Patriots have done well with their early round picks, but if anything, I think the Steelers, Eagles, and especially the Giants (note, that's the last two NFL Champs in there) actually prove that that might not matter much.
The Browns have just as many starters from the first three rounds than each of those teams, and four more first rounders starting than the Giants.
From there, I'm not sure why it makes much of a difference that the Eagles have 9 starters who were drafted 5th round or lower, the Giants have 10, and the Browns have 11.
Somehow I suspected this. There are too many castoffs on this team.
You know, you can draft the most talented players ever to play the game, but if you don't put them in the right situation and right system, their talent will not be met. Robert Gallery was a first rounder. Is he talented? Enought to start, but not enough to be considered pro-bowl talent, or talented, for that matter. But he can start.
On the other hand you have James Harrison, undrafted, shuffled between teams here and there, eventually found his niche at the right time and situation.
We have to be able to foster the environment for success. We have to ensure our young QBs are protected with a decent offensive line, and a servicable defense. We can't just throw talent into the team and hope it works.
Case in point: Joe Thomas, or Adrian Peterson.
My opinion on this is that Thomas is the best way to go, 100% of the time. AP is successul not only because of his otherworldly talent, but the fact that he's running behind one of the best Olines in the league (Hutchinson, anybody?). Put him behind the rag tag line, he'll get pummelled, and hurt, and we wouldn't be calling him All-Day, we wouldn't be drafting him #1 overall in fantasy leagues. Case in point: Darren McFadden. Crappy offensive line, no QB help, no room to run, no room for success. Take DMC and put him on any other team, and he'll be turning heads. Look at his rookie season. He had 2, maybe 3 huge games, and the others he floundered, due to injury or just crappy complementary play. That's what AP would have looked like playing on the Browns.
So yea, we have an idea of where we need to be, it will take time. Mangini seems to know what his plan is and is taking baby steps to get there. The most important question is: Does his plan work at an NFL level, and is it where we want to be?
I hope so. Ball control, strong offensive line, good running game, great defense.
@ Cleveland Frowns
I think you missed the point of the article. UFA's that become stars are the exception not the rule. There are only a handful of guys like James Harrison, Josh Cribbs, Jason Peters, Jeff Garcia. Even if every team found one, that means there are 32 of them. Why do the Browns need 25 bottom end players on the roster? Some successful teams decide to instead of blow big money on elite players to build solid players across the board. The Browns have whiffed on both fronts. There most definitely is a talent difference between first round guys and UFA's. If there wasn't John Parker Wilson and Rhett Bomar would be starting instead of Mark Sanchez. While not all first rounders pan out, they as a rule of thumb make a bigger impact. If the Browns didn't have so many bottom end players, and always draft for need instead of taking the best available player, they might have some talented players to fill in around the perceived star players. Having the 8 drafted players in lieu of bottom end guys means they might have more than 1-2 linebackers and a right tackle, and a #2 WR. It is all about talent and putting it in the right place. The Browns flounder because theydon't really do either. If you think there is so much talent, where are they hiding it? Mangini isn't a complete moron.