By Aaron Ziraks
NoLogoNeeded.com Staff Writer
Twitter: @Z_NoLogoNeeded
Earlier this week I wrote I didn't think Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson were in the Browns' future plans. I also stated I am not a fan of Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen. Instead of drafting a rookie quarterback, I would just as well give up the Browns' first pick to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb, especially if the Browns were planning on taking Bradford or Clasuen. In other words, I think Kolb is better and will be better than Bradford or Clausen.
Since my original post, recent reports surfaced Quinn is on the trading block. Some Browns fans think Quinn can still be the guy and some say Browns President Mike Holmgren thinks Quinn can still be the guy based on a quote he made at the NFL Combine.
"A quarterback needs two full seasons before you can judge him," Holmgren said. "What's Brady Quinn started? Twelve games? How can we know if he's the guy?''
When Holmgren made that statement, I was standing five feet away. It was in no way, shape or form an endorsement for Quinn. If anything, it was a smoke screen to get more teams thinking Quinn has the tools to be an NFL quarterback.
The reasons Holmgren is not sold on Quinn are simple: Quinn doesn't have the accuracy or arm strength to be a premier starting quarterback in the NFL. Sorry, but former quarterback Trent Dilfer or even current quarterback Mark Sanchez are exceptions, not the rule. The NFL rule is in order to win you have to have a premier starter who makes plays.
With some good, old-fashioned statistical analysis, I wanted to shed some light into why Quinn's time in Cleveland looks to be coming to an end.
I did a statistical breakdown of the first 12 games for every starter in the NFL in 2009 followed by a little comparing. If I was able to put this together in a couple of hours, imagine the in-depth stats and hours of film available at Holmgren's fingertips showing him what he has in Quinn.
I do, however, want to preface things by saying I wanted nothing more than for Quinn to be the guy the Browns could believe in for the next 15 years. Truth is, I don't believe that is the case. If Quinn is given a chance, I hope he capitalizes on it and I am dead wrong. Unfortunately, after looking at the numbers, Quinn is not on the same level as a majority of his peers.
Quinn's Numbers
The categories are Completion Percentage, Yards, Touchdowns, Interceptions, Wins and Learning Curve. The "Learning Curve" was the number of weeks between the quarterback's first minicamp until his 12th game he started.
In all but one of those aforementioned categories, Quinn is not ranked higher than 25th. The lone exception is interceptions where he is ranked ninth. What that tells me is Quinn he takes care of the ball, but he doesn't make plays.
I'm sure each of us have watched the Browns enough to see how few chances Quinn takes downfield and with his first read. Now some might be saying, "It's OK, the Browns are a run-first team and he is a game manager." The only problem with that logic is Quinn's completion percentage is ranked 29th, behind the likes of JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith. Quinn is not accurate enough to be a game manager and he is too timid to capitalize on shots downfield.
People question his arm strength, but I can't really make a determination because I'm not a scout and I don't get to see him practice. But from his play in games, Quinn looks very inaccurate throwing down field.
The 32 Starting Quarterbacks in the NFL in 2009:
| Name | Comp % | Yards | TD | INT | Wins | Curve |
| Warner | 67.8 | 3213 | 32 | 9 | 10 | 81 |
| Roethlisberger | 65.9 | 2224 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| Favre | 65.7 | 2678 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 82 |
| Brady | 65.4 | 2491 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 85 |
| Rivers | 64.8 | 2600 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 130 |
| Bulger | 64.6 | 3523 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 133 |
| Romo | 64.6 | 3172 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 232 |
| Cassel | 64.5 | 2784 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 186 |
| Rodgers | 64.5 | 2897 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 182 |
| Ryan | 63.1 | 2625 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 29 |
| Cutler | 62.6 | 2671 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 84 |
| Schaub | 62.6 | 2693 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 189 |
| Brees | 61.8 | 2327 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 75 |
| Flacco | 61 | 2276 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 30 |
| Palmer | 60.7 | 2695 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 81 |
| Henne | 60.5 | 2646 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 84 |
| Fitzpatrick | 57.9 | 1979 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 161 |
| Russell | 57 | 1990 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 87 |
| Delhomme | 55.8 | 2562 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 303 |
| Garrard | 55.8 | 2191 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 256 |
| P.Manning | 55.6 | 2810 | 19 | 23 | 2 | 26 |
| Campbell | 55.2 | 2382 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 133 |
| Freeman * | 55 | 1839 | 10 | 18 | 3 | 33 |
| Hasselbeck | 54.9 | 2023 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 135 |
| A. Smith | 54.8 | 1912 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 80 |
| Orton | 53.9 | 1591 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 30 |
| Sanchez | 53.5 | 2049 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 29 |
| McNabb | 53.4 | 1963 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 82 |
| Quinn | 53.1 | 1848 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 141 |
| Young | 53.1 | 1839 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 33 |
| Stafford * | 52.9 | 2267 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 29 |
| E. Manning | 50.2 | 2219 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 80 |
*Denotes rookie quarterback without 12 starts.
Strength of Team Argument
Obviously, Quinn was not surrounded by the most talented group of players, especially at the skill positions. But the Browns' offensive line was above average. Browns quarterbacks were not running for their lives when they dropped back to pass. That makes a big difference. Look at JaMarcus Russell and see how his stats compare to Quinn. Russell was a better quarterback who had less of a "learning curve," but he was surrounded by a worse team.
Quinn Compared to Groomed QBs
Let's match Quinn with the quarterbacks who were eased into the starting role. In general, the longer the quarterback sat, the better they performed.
For example, Aaron Rodgers was better in his first 12 starts than Peyton Manning, but Rodgers had 182 weeks of learning at the pro level and Manning only had 26. The four players who are most comparable to Quinn (141 weeks) in their "Learning Curve" are Phillip Rivers (130 weeks), Marc Bulger (133 weeks), Jason Campbell (133 weeks) and Matt Hasselbeck (135 weeks).
Rivers started in 2006 after sitting behind Drew Brees for two seasons. After 12 games, Rivers' numbers looked like this:
64.8 completion percentage (CP)
2,600 yards passing (YP)
16 touchdowns (TD)
6 interceptions (INT)
10 wins (Ws)
Rivers had some pieces around him, so comparing him to Quinn is not apples-to-apples. Running back Ladanian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates played prominent roles, but Rivers' receiving corps was Keenan McCardell, Eric Parker and Greg Camirillo. Not exactly the best weapons at wide out.
However, Rivers still had to perform and perform he did. His most telling stat is completion percentage. Rivers was head and shoulders better than Quinn in that department. Sure, Rivers had pieces around him, but completion percentage is a stat attributed more to the quarterback than his weapons.
Marc Bulger started in 2002 after sitting behind Kurt Warner for two seasons. After 12 games Bulger's numbers looked like this:
64.6 CP
3,523 YP
25 TD
13 INT
11 Ws
First of all, this comparison is not fair as Bulger had legitimate weapons in Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt and Marshall Faulk. Two of those three are on the hall of fame level. However, the fact remains Bulger still had to deliver the ball and deliver it accurately.
A better example is Jason Campbell. He sat for two years before given the starting nod in 2006. He had playmakers around him like Clinton Portis, Santana Moss and Antwan Randle-El, but Campbell still could not perform. In his first season as a starter, he could only muster five wins in his first 12 games.
Before Campbell took over as the starter the Redskins went 11-5 in 2005 before reverting to 5-11 in 2006. The only real difference between those two teams was Campbell. So, I ask you, if we were able to put Campbell on that 2002 Rams team or 2006 Chargers team would Campbell be as successful? I would say no because Campbell is simply not as gifted as Rivers or Bulger.
Here are Campbell's stats for his first 12 games.
55.2 CP
2,382 YP
15 TD
10 INT
5 Ws
Anyway you cut it, Campbell's stats are better than Quinn's. Campbell has never really showed he is the real deal, which is why the Redskins could be drafting a quarterback this April.
The last, and maybe most telling comparison, is Matt Hasselbeck. He was brought over from Green Bay by Holmgren after sitting behind Brett Favre for two seasons. Here are Hasselbeck's stats from 2001 in his first 12 games.
54.9 CP
2,023 YP
7 TD
8 INT
5 Ws
The stats are very similar, but there is one glaring difference: Holmgren had been grooming Hasselbeck for two years in Green Bay. When Holmgren got the Seattle gig he wanted Hasselbeck as the starter. He saw something in Hasselbaeck he knew he could work with and mold. Holmgren doesn't have that with Quinn. Although statistically Hasselbeck is not that much better than Quinn, I would still take Hasselbeck's first 12 games over Quinn's.
Peyton's Learning Curve
When some people talk about Brady Quinn not getting a chance they mention Peyton Manning. What would happen if the Colts gave up on Manning? Obviously, it would have been a bad move on Indianapolis' part.
Peyton Manning started his first game after being in the NFL for 14 weeks. Quinn started his first game after being in the NFL for 78 weeks. Another glaring omission in that argument is Manning threw for almost 3,000 yards in his first 12 games. He had three 300-yard passing games and he did not throw a touchdown pass in only one start. By comparison, Quinn had one 300-yard passing day and eight games with zero touchdowns. Those stats speak for themselves and, needless to say, the 1998 Colts were a bad team who finished worse than the 2009 Browns.
| Manning | Comp % | Yards | TD | INT | Wins | Curve | Team |
| 1 | 56.8 | 302 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14 | IND |
| 2 | 63.6 | 188 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15 | IND |
| 3 | 45.5 | 193 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | IND |
| 4 | 59.4 | 309 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17 | IND |
| 5 | 52.2 | 137 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | IND |
| 6 | 48.8 | 235 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19 | IND |
| 7 | 60 | 231 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | IND |
| 8 | 57.7 | 278 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22 | IND |
| 9 | 52.4 | 140 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23 | IND |
| 10 | 59.1 | 276 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | IND |
| 11 | 48.3 | 164 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25 | IND |
| 12 | 64.3 | 357 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | IND |
| Total | 55.6 | 2810 | 19 | 23 | 2 | 26 |
| Quinn | Comp % | Yards | TD | INT | Wins | Curve | Team |
| 1 | 65.7 | 239 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 78 | CLE |
| 2 | 38.9 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 79 | CLE |
| 3 | 44.4 | 94 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 80 | CLE |
| 4 | 60 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 127 | CLE |
| 5 | 58.1 | 161 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 128 | CLE |
| 6 | 75 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 129 | CLE |
| 7 | 41.9 | 99 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 136 | CLE |
| 8 | 63.6 | 304 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 137 | CLE |
| 9 | 44.1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | CLE |
| 10 | 55.6 | 271 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 139 | CLE |
| 11 | 31.6 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 140 | CLE |
| 12 | 58.8 | 66 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 141 | CLE |
| Total | 53.1 | 1848 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 141 |
Summary
You can tell if a quarterback is good by looking at his first 12 starts. The quarterbacks who are good in this league prove it right away. There are exceptions to every rule, but almost every starter last season had better numbers in the first 12 games than Brady Quinn.
As for the perceived "lack of talent" around Quinn, when Quinn started in three games in 2008 he had basically the same offense around him as Derek Anderson had when he put up big numbers in 2007.
Since Anderson started playing poorly in 2007, the Browns went down the tubes and have been spiraling ever since mostly because of poor quarterback play.
I know in my heart Quinn is not the answer. For those of you who believe he is, I hope you're right. It would mean the Browns had their guy. The actions leading up to the draft will prove whether or not Holmgren is sold on Quinn, but the numbers don't lie. Quinn has done nothing but struggle in his first 12 starts. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Editor's note: Anyone interested in seeing all the numbers, game-by-game for each quarterback, please e-mail us at NoLogoNeeded@gmail.com. We can send those numbers to you so you can do your own analysis and tell us what you think.
©2008-2010 No Logo Needed All Rights Reserved
Contact us with comments, concerns or advertising opportunities:
Email: NoLogoNeeded@gmail.com
Twitter: @DonNoLogoNeeded; @Z_NoLogoNeeded
Comments
Good analysis.
I too was all for Quinn. After watching him at Notre Dame I was impressed. He was an Ohio guy & seemed to have
what it took.
He's been very disappointing.
He looks uncomfortable in the pocket & his accuracy has been very poor.
There's been virtually no improvement since his rookie year. If anything, he looks liike he's regressed.
I think Quinn has one factor that is holding him back: nerves.
He gets happy feet in the pocket and loses the strikezone (just as it says in the scouting report from draft day)
I think he could definitely improve considerably if placed in a stable situation with a real offensive system (like what Manning has always had.)
He takes care of the ball but rarely takes risks because he has never been comfortable in the starting role and wants desperately to keep his job.
He has been overly safe with the ball because he has always had Anderson breathing down his neck if he were to make too many mistakes.
I don't know if Brady has what it takes to be a good NFL starter but I definitely think he can be better than his first 12 starts indicate.
??????????
So, Eli Manning is worse than Quinn then? And Quinn is close to Donovan McNabb?
The only thing you've proven here is that you "know something in your heart."
One thing you might want to address if you care to show that what's in your heart should concern anyone else is the point that Quinn has basically had only 3 or 4 starts each with what were essentially three different teams (2 seasons, 2 coaches). Massive instability. That's a lot different from 12 games with one team in one season.
You also don't mention that 6 of Quinn's 12 starts came with him playing with what's literally the worst set of pass catchers in modern NFL history. Portis, Santana Moss, Randle-El, and don't forget Chris Cooley...literally, exponentially better than what Quinn was surrounded with.
The comparison to Rivers' situation is bad too, but this one really kills me:
"Bulger had legitimate weapons in Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt and Marshall Faulk. Two of those three are on the hall of fame level. However, the fact remains Bulger still had to deliver the ball and deliver it accurately. "
That's like comparing my dunking ability with LeBron's. "Sure LeBron is 6'9 and Frowns is 6'0, but the fact remains that Lebron had to jump up and throw it down through the hoop."
Hey, at least you know something "in your heart." Incredible.
I'm not saying Quinn "is the guy." It's just that, if anything, all you've proven here is that 12 games isn't enough in which to judge an NFL quarterback.
@ Cleveland Frowns
Wow, man you need a hug or something.
Did you ever think that those guys on other teams are good because their quarterback is good.
Do your best to apologize for Quinn and all of his short comings, make excuses all you want.
My opinion, and "in my heart" as you like to point out, is that Quinn hasn't been good and the comparison of stats shows he hasn't been good.
Talk to any NFL personnel man and they'll tell you they look for completion percentage. Especially when it comes today's NFL.
53.1 percent is getting it done and, as Z's research shows, it's not improving. Because it's not improving, it's time to go in a different direction.
Man O' Man! What a beautiful face of the franchise he could have been. Would sell anything you stood him next to. From stadium seats to energy drinks. Even though its painful, sometimes you have to re-break the bone so it will heal correctly. You don't cuss Dr. Holmgren for the short term pain just because you cant see the long term rehab. I know this to be true in my heart and now I have numbers to back it.
Numbers don't lie and neither does the videotape. Nice analysis, Z. I think there are two types of QBs: those that make the talent around them better, and those that need the talent around them to make them better. Peyton and Tom Brady are the former, BQ is the latter. I've never been sold on Quinn though I've hoped he would step up. Being an Ohio boy only means something if he succeeds. Otherwise, keeping him because he's a fellow Ohioan makes it an emotional decision and not a good football decision. I have complete confidence in Holmgren and Heckert to make this decision. I'm hoping that they can find a Montana/Tom Brady in the late rounds and not reach for a QB in the early rounds when we need players who can impact right now.
About the Wallace trade: I like it cuz it brings us a good backup who could possibly be an average to above average starter. Average to above average would be a good step up from Quinn.
Look at Peter go! Flinging around half-truths and twisting words around all while not saying much of anything at all - sounds to me like someone has been through law school. I'll see what I can do about getting this case of slander that has been brought against Brady Quinn thrown out of internet court for you, Peter. It's the least I can do since you presented such a compelling defense on his behalf. Or not.
Look, I know a thing or two about sleight of hand being used in a defense. And your attempted misdirection (Lebron vs. You in dunk off) is utterly preposterous (not to mention less effective than a glove not fitting). Next time, I recommend going to Football Outsiders, or some similar site, and looking up an adjusted completion percentage after drops have been factored in. Depending upon how that stat swings, you might have your argument right there. Comparing Bulger to Quinn on terms of accuracy alone, in the above example, does work if you take into account solely the quarterback part of the equation. Quinn can't be blamed for the drops of Edwards et. al, but he can be blamed for air mailing passes left and right. A receiver doesn't have a chance to drop a pass if it isn't anywhere near him. And, essentially, that was the heart of the comparison between Bulger and Quinn.
So, in the future have one of you paralegals do your research for you so you’re not reduced to nitpicking the opinions of others and instead can cross examine with fact. If the author of this post feels that in his “heart Quinn is not the answer” that’s his prerogative, just as it’s yours to harbor an unseemly crush on a below average NFL quarterback.
"Did you ever think that those guys on other teams are good because their quarterback is good."
You mean that Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon aren't two of the best WRs in the NFL?!?!? Get outta here...
(Great stuff, Aaron. Keep up the solid work.)
@ Frowns
So you try to bash an article but provide ZERO reasons for keeping Quinn in your 1000 word comment? Actually you argue to keep him but then claim he may not be the answer. Way to take a stand and express your opinion. Please name one reason that anyone should want to see more from him. I for one am tired of watching an inept offense which has a quarterback throw for 34 yards, 66 yards, 90 yards, 94 yards, 99 yards, or even 100 yards. And that is a fact. Some quarterbacks throw for those amounts in single drives but BQ has done that in entire games in half of his starts. People need to come to the realization that this team will be much better when the offense actually is a threat through the air. It has proven it is a threat on the ground, which should open passing lanes. Yet the stats haven't improved.
@ Waited This Long
Love the bone breaking comparison.
What can I say? If folks want to pretend that a QBs completion percentage isn't in part a function of the receivers he has to throw to, there's no point arguing. If folks want to pretend that inaccuracy isn't a function of not having any open receivers, and pretend that massive franchise instability wouldn't affect a young quarterback, what can I say?
Scott, your logic might go one worse than Aaron's by bringing Collie and Garcon into the equation. Because of course Manning in his 11th year in the league is a valid comparison to Quinn in his first 12 games. And no stability there in Indy? No Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark there, either? Ugh.
I've obviously struck a nerve here. Reminds me of the comments I would get in response to my defenses of Mangini.
Fact remains, this post proves absolutely nothing. Again, I'm not saying Quinn is the guy, it's just that the stats here say nothing as to whether he is or not. Comparing Quinn's stats to these quarterbacks across the board without factoring in the circumstances is simply wrong.
PS: Ito, It takes quite a man to fling personal attacks from an anonymous commenting handle. Well done. Note, I'm attacking arguments here, not people.
So what you're saying is, you don't know anymore than the rest of us. Give him a full year to find out. Then we will all know. The Browns sure would look foolish if he went to Denver and beat us in the AFC Championship game 3 times..
I agree, give him a year and tell him no matter what he is the starter for all 16 games. If he thinks he'll be pulled the minute he makes a mistake, he'll never build any confidence. I think that is what happened in the first 3 games last year. He looked so tight you could drive a needle up his nether regions with a sledgehammer. Draft a project in the lower rounds but give him the job unconditionally or trade him.
Before closing the door on Quinn, I agree he needs a full season. A few games here, and a few games there don't allow a qb to build any consistency.
Hey man...my grandma once said to me "baby" ( she called me baby )...she said "baby, when you cut the cards, you gotta cut em thin to win" then she took another shot of whiskey, she continued by saying, "if folks dont get med then you didnt tell the truth"....you told the truth and if you do not believe it, read the responses to your post....Quinn is not the answer, it is painfully obvious. but what is really driving folks to want him back is this: THE BROWNS FAITHFUL RUINED A GUY WHO WON 10 GAMES AND THREW 29 TD's IN FAVOR OF QUINN...HOW SILLY DO THEY LOOK NOW?
@ 32Forever
You get today's gold star for using the term, "nether regions."
That term always makes me laugh.
I still do not understand why both QB's were so much worse in 2009 than they were before that. What did Mangini and staff do that resulted so? And I do note that none of Mangini's Jets QB's were anywhere near as bad as Quinn and Anderson last year. What I'm getting to, and taking note of Gannon's several-times-repeated booth comment that the game hasn't slowed down yet for Quinn who seemed to be throwing late to receivers (and toss in Rutigliano's and Gannon's criticism of the route running of Browns receivers), is that I am not convinced that Quinn and Anderson, wherever he ends up, will never play any better than they did in 2009.
Still, I haven't seen anything anywhere that explains what Mangini and company did wrong last year ... especially when Daboll is now hailed as a genius offensive guy and the QB coach is one of the most experienced and the QB competition last year is not the only one is NFL history. So, will it be different in 2010?
it's nice to know that an entire career can boil down to simply stats. *sarcasm*
did you know joe namath won the super bowl? yes?
well did you know after he won that historic game he never once beat a team with a winning percentage above 0.500? Yet he's in the hall of fame, and will be immortalized forever. here are his career stats:
173 TD's
220 INT's
50.1% Completion %
212 yards passing/game
65.2 career QB rating
5-5-2 record in first 12 games
In his first 12 games he was 195 -412 for a 47.33% completion percentage. he threw for 2775 yds, threw 23 TD's and 20 INT's. His TD stats were padded heavily by a 4 TD game and a 5 TD game. He only had one game without a single TD though, but he had 3 games with 3 INT's and four others with 2 INT's, and only two games total without an INT. His QB rating in those first 12 games was 67.97.
Despite all those terrible numbers, and keep in mind his QB rating for his career was worse than in those first 12 games, Namath went on to win a Super Bowl in his 5th season. And he started 9 games in his first season, including the season opener.
If you can honestly look at that and argue that (a) he should be a hall of famer, and (b) Quinn still has no shot at being a super bowl winning QB then you got me. But even though Quinn has 10 TD's and 9 INT's, his strength is not throwing INT's. He had 6 games without throwing an INT of his 12 starts (however 8 games without throwing a TD). He had 3 games where he threw 2 INT's, one of which he was throwing with a broken finger in his throwing hand, and only 3 games with 1 INT. Plus, as we all know, the Browns have a historically bad receiving corps this year, Edwards was historically bad in 2008 with his 30 million drops.
I look at Quinn's stats compared to Namath and realize: Namath threw for more yards (but was his receiving corps as anemic as Quinn's?), Namath was terribly inaccurate, much worse than Quinn, Namath threw A LOT of INT's, Quinn has been very good at not turning the ball over, Namath threw more TD's (which goes along with more passing yards, but again he probably didn't have such a terrible receiving corps). Thus, I can't yet fully rule out Quinn for the future, whether it's in Cleveland, or somewhere better for him. Lest we all forget how well he has played when completely healthy and not looking over his shoulder like at the beginning of 2009
@Keith Vlasak
"I still do not understand why both QB's were so much worse in 2009 than they were before that. "
How hard is it to understand that they had nobody to throw to. Toward the end of the season at my website I offered $100 to anyone who could make a good argument that the 2010 Browns post-Braylon did not have the worst set of pass-catchers of any team in modern NFL history. Nobody could do it, and nobody argued with the results of the competition.
The posts are linked here at the words "conclusively proven" if you want to see for yourself: http://tinyurl.com/yfggu32
How anyone can ignore this in honestly evaluating Quinn is beyond me.
I wrote the following at Frowns at the above linked post in response to this post this morning:
[I]f anything [the above analysis suggests] that Quinn will in fact end up the starter here in 2010, if only because, if anything, it suggests that the Browns won't be able to receive value in return for him, or anything better than what it's worth to give Quinn a year at the helm of a Cleveland Browns franchise with some semblance of stability.
Yes Quinn has had some very bad games at quarterback for the Browns, but why not chalk it up; first, to inexperience, just like anyone judging any other first-round quarterback in NFL history has been willing to do with respect to any other first-round quarterback's first twelve games as a starter, and; second to the historic instability of the Browns in Quinn's tenure here and the corresponding historic lack of surrounding talent. He might still end up no good, but at least he'll have had a real chance. Let's hope for the best, and let's not forget how good Quinn looked in his first career start, back when he had a few guys to throw to.
@ Frowns
So you are saying because the analysis shows Quinn is ba, he should be the starter because the Browns can't trade him for value. I think they played that game with Anderson adn look how that panned out. IMO, Holmgren is going to wipe his hands of this whole situation and start over.
Also, if he is so good and needs these chances, explain to me why he slid so far in the draft. Teams had questions about him from jump.
@ Kyle
I agree there are exceptions to the rule and Namath is one of them. So, is Eli Manning. He won a Super Bowl and his first 12 games were awful. So the question is will Holmgren roll the dice on Quinn being the exception, or look at the rule and find someone else
Why is everyone so willing to be patient with Quinn? Where was this patience when it came to DA?
MY POINT EXACTLY MR. BROWN! RUINED RUINED RUINED RUINED RUINS OF ANCIENT RUINED QUARTERBACKS! An entire Easter Island of RUINED Browns quarterbacks half- burried at 20 degree angles. All for what THIS time a "pretty native" Ohio roots does not destin greatness, we just lucked out with DeVo.
It is funny how hindsight is 20/20. Where were all the statistics BEFORE the Browns drafted BQ. Did he slip so far in the draft because other teams knew and the Browns didn't. If his arm was weak and he was inaccurate, why wasn't everyone yelling back then?
I don't know if he is good or bad. For me there is too little consistent data. Sort of like the minor league baseball player that comes up to the majors for a month and bats .200. Too soon to tell. Un fortunately there is no minor league team to send a QB. They have to learn on the job. I think that is why some of these QBs stay in the league for so many years with less than average stats.
Quinn looks like an athlete and seems to be dedicated to training/working out. He also seems to be intelligent. So can he be fixed?
I thought DA's biggest problems were: unable to throw a touch pass and not being able to look off a receiver. Those seemed to be problems that were unfixable for some reason. I know when he got here to Cleveland the coaches worked a lot on his footwork which had been suspect.
I guess what I'm saying is that this is not a black and white situation; god or bad. Hey, Eli Manning won a Super Bowl and had a worse rating than BQ. There has to be a reason why.
"So you are saying because the analysis shows Quinn is ba, he should be the starter because the Browns can't trade him for value. "
No. I'm saying the analysis doesn't prove anything, and might just reflect that Quinn has played his first 12 games in a massively unstable situation with a massively untalented supporting cast.
The fact that folks seem to want to judge him anyway, like you here, even ignoring that fact, suggests that he's undervalued, which is why the Browns might not get value for him.
"Explain to me why he slid so far in the draft. "
The only really controversial "pass" on Quinn was Miami at 9, and who knows how Quinn might have done down there. If you look at the teams picking between the Dolphins and Browns, it looks like none of them had a glaring need to draft a quarterback at the time (or at least had a young guy in place who they liked well enough). It's a subsidiary point, of course, but it's still interesting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NFL_Draft
"He was a standout at Notre Dame but hasn't shown any consistancy in his first couple of years as a NFL passer. Arm strength is questionable and looks awkward
in the pocket. Has troubles picking up the open recievers and tends to make jack-rabbit quick throws before patterns are completed with many dropped balls. He is a long shot to even make the team with the current talent on hand"
Nope, its not Brady Quinn. Its a quote from the San Francisco Examiner about mid-1980's about another underachiever, Joe Montana.
Oh yeah, and then he became Mr. Cool and won a few Superbowls. Go figure!!!!!
But Montana was only good because Jerry Rice and John Taylor didn't drop passes and managed to get open.
Yes, I'm 56 yers old and a Browns fan as long as I can remember. In the 70's thru the 80's my 3 buddies and I had 5 season tickets....thats cause the middle seat was for the thermos' filled with vodka, whiskey and mixes. Swear to God! I kinda sorta remember 1964 (I was 8) but wasn't really a fan then. Please research your myriad of statistics on every NFL player and future draft choices and analize, scrutinize and deduce exactly when and where my beloved Brownies will win their first superbowl......since the stats NEVER this shoyuld be a cakewalk for NOLOGONEEDED. Hurry up, I need to place my bets in Vegas!!!!!!!!!
Good stuff on Montana and Namath.
I wish somebody would explain why there is so much patience and faith in this guy....Where was all of this patience and faith after the 07 season? Why are you guys who were so willing to see DA's many faults after 07 so blind to Quinn's? I have asked this question and I have yet to get an answer. Quinn nhas not shown anything near the ability DA showed in 07 yet you guys are so patient with Quinn. Neither Edwards or Winslow has looked nearly as good as they looked with DA. I know it is hard to admit it, but you, the Browns fanbase, chased off a guy who could have been nurtured into a star for guy who is an absolute bust....It's like seeing the chick you dumped in college for a super hot chick 10 years later. The chick you dumped still looks pretty good and the super hot chick you got turns out to be a chain smoking fat chick. No amount of makeup will change the fact but you keep telling yourself it's gonna get better. Browns fans, you got the fat chick...everybody can see she is a fat chick, she is not going to lose weight...and no amount of makeup will hide it....move on it is time. Admit that as a whole we treated DA poorly and the Browns are probably cursed for ahwile.
I hate ending up with the fat chick! But its my own damn fault.
@ Luigi and Frowns
Montana is a horrible example. His stats for only his first 8 starts looked like this.
CP - 63.8%
Yards - 1891
TD- 16
INT - 9
W - 2
That destroys what Quinn has accomplished. And that is only in 8 games!
Not sure how some reporters comments about Montana has any bearing on what the stats show
If my memory is correct, Brady Quinn put up 30 & 29 points and looked great before breaking his finger. The next season everything went sour. How can a guy start off that well and then nosedive? Puzzles me.
Please tell me you guys are not seriously comparing Quinn to joe freaking Montana....He does not have the tools to be an average NFL Qb ok and comparing him to Joe Cool is just silly. It can not be more obvious than it is right now. Cleveland fans more than anybody chased off a guy who possibly could have been nurtured into a big time QB. That ship sailed so no point in looking back. But perhaps since I am a die hard Browns fan who has not lived in NE Ohio in over 20 years it is easier for me to see. Since the 07 season in every blog and to every person who would listen, I begged people to step back and take an honest look at what the browns had in this guy. They had a guy who never won a big game in college, who ran up stats against poor competition and played poorly against top competition. A guy that every team in the league took a long hard look at and passed on him. No matter what the evidence suggested, the fan base would not be swayed. Do you realize that the majority of the fans wanted DA traded after his pro Bowl season? They actually convinced themselves, after the guy won 10 games and threw 29 td’s, that a better Qb was carrying the clipboard. Most Browns fans are still willing to be patient with Quinn and want him given another year. I am amazed at how patient the fan base has been with Quinn and Frye, yet they couldnt wait for DA to leave? Makes no sense. It would seem to me that they would have been patient with the guy who actually produced for them? But here we go again, same old story looking for a QB….bye bye Brady, thanks for nothing.
@ Mr. Browns
Anyone who watched the Browns in 2007 knows that Anderson had a great first half of the season, then in the second half he was barely average. the penultimate game against the Bengals is the perfect and prime reason why Browns fans began to distrust Derek Anderson. All the Browns had to do was beat a 5-9 team. However, they went the first 44 minutes without scoring. Not only that, but Browns go down 6 on FG, next drive...in the redzone INT, which the Bengals return to our 5 yard line...TD. Next drive, 1 play INT, Bengals TD. First drive of third quarter you say? INT, and then another INT in the 4th quarter. The Bengals had two drives all game, which they only scored 6 points on, but they scored a total of 19 points by scoring 2 TD's in 40 seconds in the last minute of the first half all because Anderson choked and threw some pretty terrible passes. This effort of his epitomizes everything that went wrong in the second half of 2007, and all of 2008 and 2009. Anderson is a gunslinger, but one that makes bad decisions. He throws INT's at the worst of times, and seemingly always in the redzone.
Keep in mind he did that in 2007 with 4 Pro-bowlers in Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, Jamal Lewis, and Joe Thomas all having career years or incredible years (in the case of Lewis and Thomas). Also he had Joe Jurevicious who was having an incredible year, he led the NFL in 3rd down receptions which led to first downs.
The next season nothing was the same. Edwards was dropping passes, Winslow was hurt again and not playing at a pro-bowl level, and definitely not blocking. The O-line stunk, Lewis was not playing anywhere near as well, and we replaced Jurevicious with 17 catches from Dante Stawllworth. Yet when Quinn did come him he lit up one of the best defenses in the Broncos, only to lose because of the Browns terrible defense. Then he broke his finger in the next game, which he played great in anways. The last game for him he threw 2 INT's but was playing with a broken finger in his throwing hand.
Come to 2009 and Edwards, and Winslow are now gone, and Lewis a shell of his former self, the right side of the O-line maybe the worst in the NFL. Now you have Quinn with no weapons anywhere, receivers never open, a TE who reminds us all of Edwards' butter fingers and it's understandable why Quinn stunk. it's also understandable why Anderson stunk in 2009.
The real difference in patience with them is that Anderson had 34 starts to prove what he was capable of, but after the first 7 starts of his career he was never able to consistently perform at a high level. Quinn has really only played in 9 full games as a true starter, with only one real start with a team that should have performed well...in 2008 against the Broncos (Browns sans Joe Jurevicious though). And in that game Quinn excelled.
The point about the minor leaguer coming up for a brief stint that someone made was perfect. If the Indians never gave up on Brandon Phillips who knows how 2007 would have turned out? If the Browns give up on Quinn, and he gets the opportunity to start for a team with a good line, good wr's and a good running game, he could perform well, and the Browns fans and brass will be regretting they ever let him go.
To follow up on my last point...saying all that doesn't mean I think Quinn is the answer. I don't know who the answer is though. I think Quinn could be the answer if given a consistent fair chance to do it. Especially if there are other playmakers surrounding him. If the Browns keep Quinn and let him play out 2010 for real and he stinks, then by all means he should be let go, but there's no way to be 100% sure on him right now. Think about Jim Thome last year for the Dodgers, Thome had been a starter his whole career, then was asked to be a pinch hitter and he stunk up the joint. Quinn has only ever had 6 games in a row as a starter, and two other stints of 3 games in a row. Much like a pinch hitter in baseball, it's difficult to get into a good rhythm when you are playing consistently enough (like Thome with the Dodgers). Anderson, however, has already had his chances to do it, with several consecutive games started.
On the flip side, if the Browns let him go now, and draft Bradford or Jimmy Clausen, or somehow trade for an established and good starting QB currently in the NFL, I will be excited.
Kyle...what color is the sky in your world? First all..most fans wanted to get rid of DA after 07...Secondly it has gone viral that he played a bad second half of 07, Simply not true, if the Cincy game is taken away he played better in the second half than the first. He was the very definition of a young QB who needed nurturing. He was hated because he was not Quinn. If Da's first 12 starts had gone like QWuinns first 12 starts he never would have made 12 starts. Again, what have you seen Quinn dom that leads you to believe he will ever be a quality starter? Is it the knuckleball he throws to the fullback or the 4 yard dinks on 3 and 8 or maybe its the deep balls thrown 12 yards out of bounds? Get over where he is from, how he looks and how he talks and tell me what you have?Stop trying to make excuses for a guy who can't play.He has the most patient fan base I have ever seen. It is amazing how quickly you guys forget what they had in DA at one time. Let me know when Quinn throws 29 tds in a season.
Jimmy Claussen huh...I guess you will never learn.
wow Mr. Browns, you're dumb. Just go look at this games, it's pretty obvious he didn't do as well in the last half. I and everyone I know knew that back then! You clearly don't know anything about football, the Browns or Derek Anderson if you are that blind.
Seriously I doubt you even read what I wrote you fool. I was giving a pro Quinn argument, which doesn't mean I personally think Quinn is even that good. Learn to either (a) read things fully before reacting like a child, and/or (b) learn how to comprehend writing.
Your crap about Clausen, "I guess you will never learn" show your incompetence at understanding common sense and football. Just because Clausen went to Notre Dame, as did Quinn doesn't mean there's any more connection to the two guys other than they both were coached by Weis. But so was Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady. Would you tie them into this stupid debate of yours? Seriously get a life, grow up, and get some intelligence in your head before you make stupid comments.
Isn't any analysis that includes "wins" in evaluating a QB immediately and irreparably discredited?
If you go back and actually read what I wrote, I stated that I would be HAPPY if Quinn was traded, assuming we get someone that's actually good and a veteran in return. I also said I'd be happy if we got Bradford or Clausen if we got rid of Quinn. Don't you realize that that essentially means I don't think Quinn is that good? I don't, and I don't pretend to be delusional, like yourself with Anderson, about Quinn. He has struggled mightily at times, and he was very difficult to watch last season. But he's been good at times too. Every QB has ups and downs though, but Quinn hasn't had enough of an opportunity to show which is the outlier, the good times, or the bad. Anderson proved the outliers were his good performances. Your argument that Anderson needed to be groomed, as per his rollercoaster 2007 season, is exactly the same point about Quinn, he needs more time to be groomed if he'll ever be good, if it's possible even. Thus, you contradicted your own point!
@ Frowns
re your comment about poor receivers in response to my question about why both Browns QBs were so bad in 2009:
The poor receiving corps is not the answer with regard to Quinn. It's a valid point, however, regarding Anderson. The proof of that is to look at 2007 and Winslow, over and over, turning to look for the ball and snatching it out of the air (and usually acrobatically) before it was by him. That, I think, was the incentive Edwards needed to have to have the kind of season he had ... and then there was the big target Jurevicious underneath. The receivers made Anderson's 2007 ... and Winslow's injuries and Edwards not having competition but being the out of town reporters darling and no Joe J. in 2008 also contributed loudly to Anderson's 2008. So, sure, the receivers held Anderson back in 2009.
But, if you have any of last year's games on tape or DVD, check them out. Quinn is throwing late and behind receivers and he is hesitating to throw downfield if the receivers are not as open as they were at Notre Dame for him. It's not the receivers for Quinn. During the season I wondered if Quinn wasn't so coachable that he was being over-coached, that he was trying to implement every coaching bit directed at him and thinking too much. And then I thought that if that was the case someone would have figured it out and straightened him out.
So I still don't know (because he wasn't so bad for Crennel).
Keith, very observant. I have had the same questions and came to the same conclusions......Kyle, OK I get your point. But your original post is somewhat confusing. My point/question is whyis there so much patience with Quinn? I was not a huge Anderson guy, but he has the type of talent that can't be coached..ie a ridiculously strong arm and occasional pinpoint accuracy down the field. But overall not enough tutelage and maybe not enough between the ears.....But when I look at him I say THAT is a project that MAY be worth saving. When I look at Quinn I see a guy with a weak innaccurate arm that may have too much going on upstairs to ever make the quick decisions needed from a QB.....in other words, NOT the kind of guy who will get any better. I am no expert but if I can see this so clearly, and everybody outside of Brownstown can see it so clearly, why are we so patient/deluded with Quinn?
the only thing i have to say is this: look at all the guys who were ahead of the people you pointed out in this. Bulger sat behind Green an all Pro QB, Rivers behind Brees a SB & Pro Bowl QB, Rodgers & Hasslebeck behind Brett Favre. these guys got a feel for how to play the QB position from a guy who has had success. Brady Quinn sat behind Derek Anderson. a guy who had a good '07 season but flaked after. i'd also argue that DA didnt have the mentally to be a starter, he crumbled after the fans booed him all because they expected a repeat of '07 & he whined after he got cut.
its either this: you "throw a QB under the bus" give him a decent O line, a decent RB, and a stellar, effective WR or TE. OR you let him sit behind a proven QB who is a leader & has both the intangibles & the physical traits of a successful NFL QB. Brady Quinn had neither in Cleveland, no QB in Cleveland has had that. people are questioning Holmgren for getting Delhomme, that is what he's doing. its obvious we are drafting a QB & he's going to learn behind a proven QB who has taken his team to the SB & who is a leader.